Iran election shows declining voter support amid calls for change/node/2540996/middle-east
Iran election shows declining voter support amid calls for change
Candidate for the presidential election Saeed Jalili, center, a former Iranian top nuclear negotiator, smiles in a meeting with a group of athlete supporters during his campaigns at a sport hall in Tehran, Iran, on June 30, 2024. (AP)
Iran election shows declining voter support amid calls for change
Of 61 million eligible voters, only about 40 percent cast ballots, marking record-low turnout in country
Iran has been reeling from economic impact of international sanctions, contributing to inflation, unemployment
Updated 01 July 2024
AFP
TEHRAN: The first round of Iran’s presidential election revealed shrinking support for reformists and conservatives even though some voters are pushing for change by backing the sole reformist candidate, analysts say.
Masoud Pezeshkian, the reformist contender and ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, led the polls held on Friday to replace the late President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month.
Friday’s vote, marked by a historically low turnout, “clearly shows that both reformists’ and conservatives’ bases have considerably shrunk,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group think tank.
In the lead-up to the election, Iran’s main reformist coalition supported Pezeshkian, with endorsements by former presidents Mohammed Khatami and Hassan Rouhani, a moderate.
FASTFACT
The combined votes of Saeed Jalili and Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf totaled 12.8 million.
“The reformists brought out the big guns and tried their best to mobilize their base,” Vaez said on social media platform X, but “it was simply insufficient.”
Likewise, the conservatives failed to garner sufficient votes “despite the tremendous resources they deployed,” he added.
Vaez pointed out that the combined votes of Jalili and conservative parliamentary speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, who came in third, totaled 12.8 million.
That figure was well below Raisi’s nearly 18 million votes in the 2021 election.
Of the 61 million eligible voters, only about 40 percent cast ballots, marking a record-low turnout in the country where some people have lost faith in the process. More than 1 million ballots were spoiled.
For Vaez, the decline in turnout, from around 49 percent in 2021, was “a real embarrassment for the leadership” in Iran, where ultimate political power lies with the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Political commentator Mohammed Reza Manafi said Pezeshkian’s lead reflected a push for “fundamental changes” regarding the economy and relations with the rest of the world.
However, those favoring Pezeshkian “do not expect a miracle or a quick solution but hope he can gradually prevent conditions from worsening,” Manafi added.
Iran has been reeling from the economic impact of international sanctions, contributing to soaring inflation, high unemployment, and a record low for the Iranian rial against the US dollar.
The vote also came amid heightened regional tensions over the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas and diplomatic tensions over Iran’s nuclear program.
Pezeshkian, an outspoken heart surgeon who has represented the northwestern city of Tabriz in parliament since 2008, came out on top thanks to his “clean record without any accusations of financial corruption,” said Manafi.
Official figures showed Pezeshkian had 42.4 percent of the vote, against 38.6 percent for Jalili.
The reformists have urged “constructive relations” with Washington and European capitals to “get Iran out of its isolation.”
In contrast, Jalili is widely recognized for his uncompromising anti-West stance.
He is a former nuclear negotiator and a representative of Khamenei on the Supreme National Security Council, Iran’s highest security body.
During his campaign, he rallied a substantial base of hard-line supporters under the slogan “no compromise, no surrender” to the West.
He staunchly opposed the 2015 nuclear deal with the US and other world powers, which imposed curbs on Iran’s nuclear activity in return for sanctions relief.
At the time, Jalili argued that the pact violated Iran’s “red lines” by accepting inspections of nuclear sites.
The deal collapsed in 2018.
In a Sunday column in the ultraconservative Javan daily, political expert Ali Alavi hailed Jalili’s “honesty and truthfulness, unlike the others.”
The candidate also received support from Ghalibaf, who, after Saturday’s result, urged his support base to back Jalili in next Friday’s runoff.
Two ultraconservatives who dropped out a day before the election have also endorsed Jalili.
But on Sunday, the reformist newspaper Etemad quoted former vice president Isa Kalantari as warning against a continued conservative grip on the government.
“The country will be in peril and face numerous problems and challenges,” he said.
Vaez said the “Jalili fear factor can’t be overlooked.”
“Many who didn’t vote in this round might vote in the next one: not because they hope for better, but because they fear the worst.”
Political analyst Mohammad Marandi, however, said Jalili may not be “the sort of radical that is depicted by his opponents.”
Marandi believes that under either of the two candidates, Iran will “continue to pursue strong ties with the Global South” countries.
He added that they “will still attempt to see what can be done with the nuclear deal,” though Jalili “will just approach it with more skepticism.”
Israeli military says projectile launched from Yemen intercepted
Updated 14 sec ago
Reuters
The Israeli military said on Sunday that a projectile launched from Yemen was intercepted before it crossed into Israeli territory. The military earlier said sirens had sounded in a number of areas in central Israel following a launch from Yemen. The Houthis have fired missiles and drones at Israel repeatedly in what they say is solidarity with the Palestinians, since the Gaza war began in 2023.
Iraq PM says Syria security key to Middle East stability
“Sudani emphasized that Syria’s security and stability are closely linked to Iraq’s national security and play a crucial role in regional security
Updated 01 December 2024
AFP
BAGHDAD: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani told Syrian President Bashar Assad on Saturday that his country’s security was key to the stability of the whole region.
“Sudani emphasized that Syria’s security and stability are closely linked to Iraq’s national security and play a crucial role in regional security and efforts to establish stability in the Middle East,” his office said.
Will shaky ceasefire hold in Lebanon as tensions simmer in the neighborhood?
Arab American Institute founder James Zogby and international law expert Brad Roth share their insights on the Ray Hanania Radio Show
Events in Syria suggest non-state actors taking advantage of weakness of Axis of Resistance alliance after setbacks in Gaza and Lebanon
Updated 01 December 2024
RAY HANANIA & GABRIELE MALVISI
CHICAGO/LONDON: As a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon meant to stop the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah enters its fifth day, experts have cast doubt on its sustainability, the region’s future stability and the role of international justice in holding leaders accountable for alleged war crimes.
To complicate matters, a surprise attack on Aleppo, a city in neighboring Syria, by militant groups on Thursday breached a five-year-long truce, reigniting a long-running civil war with an intensity not seen in years.
The most serious challenge to the government of President Bashar Assad in years, the assault has raised questions about whether non-state actors are trying to take advantage of weakness of the so-called Axis of Resistance alliance resulting from setbacks suffered by Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Appearing on “The Ray Hanania Radio Show” this week, Arab American Institute founder James Zogby and international law expert Brad Roth offered insights into the Lebanon ceasefire agreement and its broader geopolitical implications.
Arab American Institute founder James Zogby and international law expert Brad Roth. (Supplied photos)
The ceasefire, announced earlier this week, comes after months of intense fighting in southern Lebanon and Gaza. While it has brought temporary relief, the terms appear to favor Israel, with critics warning of its instability as the two factions “remaining fully equipped” to strike.
Zogby described the deal as “one-sided,” noting that Israel retains significant freedom to act unilaterally. “The US and France were pushing (for the ceasefire), but the terms of the deal are Israel’s terms,” Zogby said.
The truce, brokered by the US and France, revisits the framework of UN Resolution 1701, enacted 18 years ago. According to US President Joe Biden, the agreement is intended to establish a “permanent cessation of hostilities.” It calls for Israel to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon and limits armed groups in the area to the Lebanese military and UN peacekeeping forces.
UN peacekeepers patrol in the southern Lebanese city of Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, on November 29, 2024. (AFP)
However, the updated terms grant Israel extensive leeway. A “reformulated and enhanced” mechanism, chaired by the US, allows Israel to strike Hezbollah arms shipments, a clause that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as ensuring “full freedom of military action” with Washington’s backing.
Meanwhile, the US has pledged to rearm Israel, restoring its military capacity to pre-war levels.
“I don’t think we have a ceasefire in the real sense of a ceasefire. It’s not two teams agreeing to stop. There’s one team saying: ‘we gotta stop.’ That’s Lebanon. The other team is saying: ‘We’re going to continue if we need to and the way we want to’,” Zogby said, suggesting that Israel’s insistence on the ceasefire was partly driven by internal challenges.
“I think there’s another reason why Israel wanted this now, and that is that their troops are exhausted,” he said. “They’ve been fighting new fronts. Israel’s never fought a war this long. They’re already experiencing suicides and other forms of post-traumatic shock syndrome.”
Israeli tanks are seen near the border with Lebanon on November 28, 2024. James Zogby believes Israel has agreed to a ceasefire with the Hezbollajh largely because its troops are exhausted, (AFP)
Yet, Zogby warned that Israel’s military dominance remains unchecked. “The US has created a monster which has incredible offensive capability and no restraint. None. I used to compare Israel and the Palestinians to the spoiled child and the abused child. Israel’s the spoiled child with unlimited destructive capability, and that’s dangerous.”
In his Tuesday night announcement of the ceasefire, Netanyahu described Israel’s military campaign as “victorious” on all seven fronts — Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Iran — claiming it aimed to weaken adversaries and reshape the region. However, experts view his push to expand the war as a strategy to bolster his hold on power amid a corruption trial in which he is set to testify on Dec. 10, and to obscure the true focus of the conflict: Gaza.
“Lebanon never was the main arena. It’s always been about the conquest of the land of Palestine for them,” Zogby said, criticizing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s remarks on Hezbollah’s role in Gaza, who claimed the war in Gaza lasted so long because “Hamas was counting on Hezbollah’s cavalry.
Lebanese army soldiers manning a checkpoint use a military vehicle to block a road in southern Lebanon's Marjayoun area on November 28, 2024, a day after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect. (AFP)
“And I thought, ‘how dumb, how blindsided, how short-sighted, rather, can he be that he thinks that what’s going on in Gaza is Hamas holding out for Hezbollah to rescue them. This has always been about Israel destroying Hamas and the US supporting them in that. There’s never been a desire for a ceasefire or a peace agreement,” he said.
Zogby also highlighted Lebanon’s internal struggles following the conflict. With more than 1.2 million Lebanese displaced, primarily Shiite Muslims, tensions have escalated as they relocate to areas dominated by other sectarian groups. “The country, after all, has been on the brink for a long time,” Zogby said, pointing to the ceasefire’s terms, which critics say works in Israel’s favor.
Hezbollah’s decision to open a southern front in support of Gaza had drawn significant criticism within Lebanon. Many argued it exacerbated the nation’s economic and political crises, deepening divisions and compounding the devastation. While the ceasefire has provided a fleeting sense of relief, displaced Shiite residents, unable to return to their ruined homes, question what, if anything, was gained from the war.
Mourners carry the coffins of Hezbollah fighters killed in the fighting against Israeli troops as they pass by a destroyed building in Maarakeh village, southern Lebanon, on Nov. 29, 2024.(AP)
For Hezbollah, this raises existential challenges. Critics contend that its ability to mobilize support — long reliant on weapons, financial sway and promises of deterrence — has been severely weakened, leaving its future influence in the region uncertain.
The ceasefire coincides with the International Criminal Court’s move to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu, former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas commander Mohammed Deif, accusing them of war crimes and crimes against humanity. However, the likelihood of these leaders facing justice remains slim, given Israel’s refusal to recognize the ICC’s jurisdiction.
INNUMBERS
• 3,900+ People killed in Lebanon in Israeli strikes since October 2023.
• 76+ Israeli soldiers killed in war with Hezbollah over same period.
• 44,000+ Estimated Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the same period.
Brad Roth, a professor of law at Wayne State University and an expert on international justice, outlined the challenges confronting the ICC. “In principle, if US forces commit war crimes or plausibly alleged to commit war crimes within the territory of a state that is either party to the ICC statute or has conferred specialty jurisdiction over the situation, then US forces can be subject to the jurisdiction of the ICC,” he said.
“The US has always objected to that, but they have never had very good grounds for objecting to it. And, of course, Israel as well is not a party and denies that Palestine is a state and, therefore, denies that Palestine has the legal capacity to confer jurisdiction over these territories to the ICC.”
He added that most legal experts agree Palestine satisfies the criteria for ICC jurisdiction.
Israel's genocidal war in Gaza, which it launched in response to the deadly Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, has killed at least 44,382 Palestinians as of Nov. 30, 2024, and wounded over 105,000, according to various agencies. Of those killed, more than 11,000 were children. (AFP photos)
The ICC, established through the Rome Statute in the late 1990s and operational since 2002, was designed to prosecute individuals for crimes such as genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. However, its jurisdiction excludes major powers like the US, Israel, Russia and China, creating significant gaps in its authority. “It’s a sort of Swiss cheese here in terms of what it covers,” Roth said.
He highlighted that ICC member states are legally obligated to enforce arrest warrants, though enforcement often hinges on domestic politics rather than legal principles. “Then the question of whether the problem is that a state may be bound by the treaty to engage in the arrest and may be bound by customary international law to not engage in the arrest. And those domestic courts would have to deal with that question, and how that would come out is anyone’s guess,” he said.
The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes, but there are doubts if they would ever be arrested because of continued US support for the genocidal Israeli regime. (AFP)
Adding to the complexity, French officials reportedly agreed to oversee the ceasefire’s implementation only after securing assurances that ICC warrants against Israeli leaders would not be enforced. Roth attributed this to the ICC’s reliance on US funding and support, which complicates its willingness to pursue cases against US allies.
“For that, you can draw your own conclusions about why it is that a body, so heavily dependent on US support and funding and assistance with investigation and so forth, might be reluctant to take action against the US,” he said.
Protesters attend a national demonstration in central London on November 30, 2024, demanding a halt to Israel's genocidal war against Palestinians. (AFP)
The US role in shielding Israel from international accountability has drawn criticism, particularly during the Gaza war. While the Biden administration has framed its unwavering support for Israel as essential for regional security, critics argue this stance exacerbates instability.
Zogby cautioned that continued backing of Israel’s military campaigns risks undermining long-term peace efforts, as evidenced by the resurgence of fighting in Syria.
According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor, the militants, mainly from the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, took control of “more than half of Aleppo” within hours on Friday without encountering any resistance from Syrian government forces. The official Syrian media challenged this narrative and claimed to have captured groups of “terrorists.”
Syrian militants patrol in central Aleppo on Nov. 30, 2024, as they pressed a lightning offensive against government forces. (AFP)
While the ceasefire has brought a temporary halt to the violence in Lebanon, the road ahead remains uncertain, particularly on issues related to justice and accountability.
To Roth, the ICC’s efforts to hold Israeli leaders accountable may exemplify the broader difficulties of navigating international law amid powerful political interests. A lasting resolution, he suggested, requires a robust international response addressing the root causes of the conflict.
“The Ray Hanania Radio Show” is broadcast every Thursday in Michigan on WNZK AM 690 Radio at 5 p.m. on the US Arab Radio Network and is sponsored by Arab News. To watch the full episodes and past shows, visit ArabNews.com/RayRadioShow.
Ex-minister Yaalon accuses Israel of ‘ethnic cleansing’ in Gaza
Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said it was a “shame” for Israel to “have had such a figure as army chief and defense minister”
Updated 30 November 2024
AFP
JERUSALEM: Israel’s former defense minister Moshe Yaalon on Saturday accused the Israeli army of “ethnic cleansing” in the Gaza Strip, sparking an outcry in the country.
“The road we are being led down is conquest, annexation and ethnic cleansing,” Yaalon said in an interview on the private DemocratTV channel.
Pressed on the “ethnic cleansing” appraisal, he continued: “What is happening there? There is no more Beit Lahia, no more Beit Hanoun, the army intervenes in Jabalia and in reality the land is being cleared of Arabs.”
The north of the Gaza Strip, which includes the areas Yaalon mentioned, has been the target of an Israeli offensive since October 6 aimed at preventing the Palestinian militant group Hamas from regrouping.
Yaalon, 74, was the head of the Israeli army between 2002 and 2005, just before Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Gaza.
He served as defense minister and deputy premier before resigning in 2016 over disagreements with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
There was immediate anger in Israel at his comments.
Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said it was a “shame” for Israel to “have had such a figure as army chief and defense minister.”
Netanyahu’s Likud party, to which Yaalon once belonged, slammed his “empty and dishonest remarks,” calling them “a gift to the ICC and to the camp of Israel’s enemies.”
The statement was a reference to the International Criminal Court, which has issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and his ex-defense minister Yoav Gallant on suspicion of crimes against humanity and war crimes in Gaza.
The war in the Palestinian territory erupted after Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which resulted in 1,207 deaths, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed 44,382 people in Gaza, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry that the UN considers reliable.
Earlier this month, a UN special committee pointed to “mass civilian casualties and life-threatening conditions intentionally imposed on Palestinians.”
Israel’s prosecution of the war in Gaza was “consistent with the characteristics of genocide,” the committee said, in the first use of the word by the UN in the context of the current war in Gaza.
Israel has rejected the United Nations assessment as “anti-Israel fabrications.”
Hamas military arm releases new video of Israeli hostage in Gaza
The family of hostage soldier Edan Alexander, 20, declined to comment but permitted the 3-1/2 minute video to be published
The video shows a pale-looking Alexander sitting in a dark space against a wall
Updated 30 November 2024
Reuters
JERUSALEM: Palestinian militant group Hamas published a video of an Israeli-American hostage on Saturday, in which he pleads for US President-elect Donald Trump to secure his release from captivity.
The family of hostage soldier Edan Alexander, 20, declined to comment but permitted the 3-1/2 minute video to be published. Alexander was abducted to Gaza during the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on southern Israel.
The video shows a pale-looking Alexander sitting in a dark space against a wall, identifying himself, addressing his family, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump. It is unclear whether his statement was scripted by his captors.
Netanyahu said in a statement that the video was cruel psychological warfare and that he had told Alexander’s family in a phone call that Israel was working tirelessly to bring the hostages home.
Around half of the 101 foreign and Israeli hostages still held incommunicado in Gaza are believed to still be alive.
Hamas leaders were expected to arrive in Cairo on Saturday for ceasefire talks with Egyptian officials to explore ways to reach a deal that could secure the release of hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners.
The fresh bid comes after Washington said this week it was reviving efforts toward that goal.
The Hostages Families Forum urged the administrations of both outgoing US President Joe Biden and Trump — who takes office in January — to step up efforts in order to secure a hostage release.
“The hostages’ lives hang by a thread,” it said.
